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Abstract As the major form of coral reef regime shift, stony coral to macroalgal transitions have received considerable attention. In the Caribbean, however, regime shifts in which scleractinian corals are replaced by octocoral assemblages hold potential for maintaining reef associated communities. Accordingly, forecasting the resilience of octocoral assemblages to future disturbance regimes is necessary to understand these assemblages' capacity to maintain reef biodiversity. We parameterised integral projection models quantifying the survival, growth, and recruitment of the octocorals,Antillogorgia americana,Gorgonia ventalina, andEunicea flexuosa,in St John, US Virgin Islands, before, during, and after severe hurricane disturbance. Using these models, we forecast the density of populations of each species under varying future hurricane regimes. We demonstrate that although hurricanes reduce population growth,A. americana,G. ventalina, andE. flexuosaeach display a capacity for quick recovery following storm disturbance. Despite this recovery potential, we illustrate how the population dynamics of each species correspond with a longer-term decline in their population densities. Despite their resilience to periodic physical disturbance events, ongoing global change jeopardises the future viability of octocoral assemblages. 

Background Among species with size structured demography, population structure is determined by size specific survival and growth rates. This interplay is particularly important among recently settled colonial invertebrates for which survival is low and growth is the only way of escaping the high mortality that small colonies are subject to. Gorgonian corals settling on reefs can grow into colonies of millions of polyps and can be meters tall. However, all colonies start their benthic lives as single polyps, which are subject to high mortality rates. Annual survival among these species increases with size, reflecting the ability of colonies to increasingly survive partial mortality as they grow larger. Methods Data on survival and growth of gorgonian recruits in the genera Eunicea and Pseudoplexaura at two sites on the southern coast of St John, US Virgin Islands were used to generate a stage structured model that characterizes growth of recruits from 0.3 cm until they reach 5 cm height. The model used the frequency distributions of colony growth rates to incorporate variability into the model. Results High probabilities of zero and negative growth increase the time necessary to reach 5 cm and extends the demographic bottleneck caused by high mortality to multiple years. Only 5% of the recruits in the model survived and reached 5 cm height and, on average, recruits required 3 y to reach 5 cm height. Field measurements of recruitment rates often use colony height to differentiate recruits from older colonies, but height cannot unambiguously identify recruits due to the highly variable nature of colony growth. Our model shows how recruitment rates based on height average recruitment and survival across more than a single year, but size-based definitions of recruitment if consistently used can characterize the role of supply and early survival in the population dynamics of species. 

Recruitment is a key demographic process for maintenance of local populations and recovery following disturbance. For marine invertebrates, distribution and abundances of recruits are impacted by spatiotemporal variation in larval supply, settlement rates and post-settlement survival. However, for colonial and modular organisms, differences in survival and growth between settlers and colonial recruits may also affect recruitment patterns. In the Caribbean, shifts in the benthic community structure favoring octocoral’s have been detected, and recruitment has been suggested as key for octocoral’s resilience. Hence, we studied octocoral recruitment dynamics, and evaluated the role of pre-settlement, settlement and post-settlement processes in recruit’s densities. We performed the study at two sites with different octocoral densities, on the south coast of St. John, United States Virgin Islands, and distinguished between processes occurring to recently settled polyps and to colonial recruits. At both sites, we monitored P. homomalla settlers on settlement tiles for 3 months, and colonial recruits of two of the most abundant genera ( Eunicea and Pseudoplexaura) for 3 years. In addition, we assessed whether recruits morphological traits affected recruitment and divided recruits of the genus Eunicea based on the presence of large calyces. The major contributor to both, single-polyps and colonial recruit densities was larval supply. Single-polyp densities were not limited by the availability of space, settlement cues, or early post-settlement survival. Height was the only predictor of survival and growth of colonial recruits, with potential growth rates increasing with height. However, large recruits suffered partial mortality often, distorting the relationship between recruit age and size, and causing most recruits to remain in the recruit size class (≤5 cm) longer than a year. Octocorals have been resilient to the conditions that have driven the decline of scleractinian corals throughout the Caribbean, and recruitment has been key to that success. Our results are crucial to understand early life history dynamics of Caribbean octocorals, and highlights the need to standardize the definition of recruit among colonial and modular taxa to facilitate inter-specific comparisons, and to understand future changes in coral reef community assemblages. 

Abstract The three‐dimensional structure of habitats is a critical component of species' niches driving coexistence in species‐rich ecosystems. However, its influence on structuring and partitioning recruitment niches has not been widely addressed. We developed a new method to combine species distribution modelling and structure from motion, and characterized three‐dimensional recruitment niches of two ecosystem engineers on Caribbean coral reefs, scleractinian corals and gorgonians. Fine‐scale roughness was the most important predictor of suitable habitat for both taxa, and their niches largely overlapped, primarily due to scleractinians' broader niche breadth. Crevices and holes at mm scales on calcareous rock with low coral cover were more suitable for octocorals than for scleractinian recruits, suggesting that the decline in scleractinian corals is facilitating the recruitment of octocorals on contemporary Caribbean reefs. However, the relative abundances of the taxa were independent of the amount of suitable habitat on the reef, emphasizing that niche processes alone do not predict recruitment rates.